Estimation of student demand in an educational institution to calculate teaching and classrooms capacity using a forecast model

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the historical behavior of student enrollment in a technological high mid-level school, in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, in order to estimate future demand, to identify the required infrastructure capacity in the institution, in terms of classrooms and teaching staff and calculate the student-teacher and student-classroom ratios and compare them with the international and Mexican average ratios. This is due to the fact that at the beginning of the school cycles, there were situations of lack of capacity to serve the students on time, having to improvise in the adequacy of the facilities and teaching staff. Different methods of quantitative forecasts were reviewed that, according to the historical behavior of the data, the one that most closely adheres to mentioned behavior was used. Data from 15 school periods available since its inauguration were collected. Data treatment begins with normality tests in order to establish the statistic that was used. Once the appropriate forecast model was used, it was validated with 5 periods to check if the calculated forecasts adhered to the real data that was presented from period 16 to 20, likewise, the statistical hypothesis tests were carried out for validation of the models used. Tests were performed with different level and trend smoothing factors, using the one that showed the lowest error per period, which ranged from 0.21% to 8.88%. The ratios student-teacher and student-class found were 36 and 38 respectively.